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While the has recovered from breaks of its 200-week MA before, every such test (and break) of the moving average increases the chance of a flip from a level of support to resistance.
Supporting technicals for the index is next bearish, but more importantly, since the sharp shift in relative performance against the in March, the index has struggled to regain the initiative.
More importantly, the summer rally barely registered in terms of relative performance. This means the likelihood of a move to an oversold state is high, and therefore further losses can be expected here.
The will be next to see a test of support as 13,000 comes into view. Unlike the Russell 2000 (), it has overbought momentum and (just about) bullish trend strength.
The on-balance volume has moved to a ‘sell’ trigger, following the earlier ‘sell’ trigger in the MACD. The 50-week MA has created a ‘golden cross’ with the 200-week MA, albeit from a relatively flat starting point. It’s still all to play for, but given the aforementioned action in the Russell 2000, what is likely to come next is not good news.
The S&P 500 weekly chart sits in a similar predicament to the Nasdaq, with 4,325 support key. It’s managing ‘sell’ triggers in the MACD and On-Balance-Volume to go with more bullish signals in ADX and Momentum. It does have a key advantage in that it’s outperforming the Russell 2000, which means that if buyers do emerge to support the indexes, they will be buying into the S&P 500 first.
It’s two ticks in the bull column for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq on the weekly chart and one tick in the bearish column for the Russell 2000 ($IWM). Unfortunately, it’s small-cap stocks that do most of the talking when it comes down to market leadership and they are saying ‘sell’. At the very least, look for support tests in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, and then depending on what the Russell 2000 is doing will give us an idea as to what happens next.
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